What it is — Dot Plot
The dot plot is a chart published four times a year with the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Each dot is one FOMC participant’s projection of where the federal funds rate should be at the end of the current and the next few years — a map of the committee’s collective thinking, not a promise.
Markets focus on the median dot for each year, and on how it shifts between releases: two dots moving down can convert a “hold” into a cut expectation. The gap between the market’s priced path and the dots’ median is the ongoing argument that moves the dollar.
Why it matters — Dot Plot
- It is guidance, not outcome: the dot plot is the clearest view of the rate path that drives carry, gold and the dollar’s trend.
- Dots diverge: a wide spread between hawkish and dovish dots tells you the committee itself is split — expect volatile reactions to every speaker.
- Four times a year: March, June, September and December meetings carry the SEP; the other meetings publish a statement only.
The dots, decoded at a real meeting
Four times a year the Fed publishes the FOMC participants’ projections — and the famous chart: 19 anonymous dots, one per official, each marking where that person expects the policy rate to sit at the end of the next few years. Suppose the median dot path drops from showing two cuts to showing none while inflation data has been soft — markets will reprice the whole curve that afternoon, because the median is the committee’s own forecast of itself. Reading rules: the median dot is the story, not the outliers; the dispersion tells you how divided the committee is; and the dots are projections, not promises — they have missed reality by entire cycles before.
How traders get the dots wrong
Two classic mistakes. Treating every dot equally — the market prices the median and the shift in it; one hawkish outlier is a footnote unless it is the chair’s. And ignoring the meeting context: a dot plot released with a dovish statement is read through the statement, and vice versa — the press conference reconciles the two, which is why the 2:30 p.m. half hour after a dot-plot meeting routinely swings more than the statement itself. The durable habit: track how the median moved between plots across the year — that trajectory is the committee’s revealed path, and trajectory is what rate markets trade. Between meetings, the calendar and its feeds keep the next plot date from sneaking up on you.
Frequently asked questions — Dot Plot
When is the dot plot published?
Four times a year, alongside the Summary of Economic Projections at the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings, at 2:00 PM ET with the statement. Dates are on our Economic Calendar.
How often is the dot plot published?
Four times a year, alongside the March, June, September and December FOMC meetings — each participant's projection for the rate path, growth, unemployment and inflation, with the minutes expanding on it three weeks later.
Do the Fed's dots actually predict rates?
They predict what the committee expects under its own assumptions — a forecast with a real but imperfect record. Markets treat the median as guidance and the changes between plots as the signal; nobody treats a single dot as a promise.
Does a dot equal a promise to cut or hike?
No. Each dot is one member’s projection conditioned on that member’s economic outlook. Projections change with the data — markets trade the change in the median, not any single dot.
Related terms — Dot Plot
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